A Recovery That’s Moving Slower Than Predicted
Recent data shows that the freight market’s rebound is lagging behind expectations. According to FreightWaves, the trucking industry continues to battle familiar challenges alongside deeper structural issues. Shipment volumes fell another 4.7% in the last quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter - marking the tenth consecutive quarterly decline. Shippers also pulled back on spending, signaling that the road to recovery is still bumpy.

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What’s Dragging the Market Down?
Chief economist Bob Costello points to several pressure points, starting with the manufacturing sector. Factory output has been weaker than expected, and because manufacturing is the backbone of freight demand, even slight dips have an outsized impact on trucking volumes. No other sector swings the freight market quite as dramatically.
Another challenge is the continued growth of private fleets. During the pandemic, shippers struggled with limited capacity and unpredictable supply chains. Many responded by building their own transportation networks, reducing their reliance on for-hire trucking. As a result, capacity shifted inward - leaving less freight available for carriers competing on the open market.
Still, not everything is bleak. The Q4 decline was the smallest drop of 2024 when measured year over year, and shipper spending didn’t fall as sharply as in previous quarters. These small but meaningful signals offer a hint that the market may be nearing a turning point.

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What Freight Rates Tell Us About the Bigger Picture
Freight rates provide another layer of insight. Spot rates ticked up by 0.5% - the first quarter-over-quarter increase since early 2022. Year over year, spot prices were still down 1.9%, but the slight rise offers a glimmer of stabilization.
Contract rates, however, continued their steady decline, falling 1% from the previous quarter and 5% from the previous year. Fuel costs dropped even further, with a 6.7% quarterly decrease and a steep 23.6% drop compared to the previous year.

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How Different Regions Have Been Hit
The slowdown hasn’t been felt evenly across the country.

• the Southeast experienced the sharpest decline, with shipments down 6.7%
• the Midwest saw a 5.2% drop in shipments and a 1.7% decline in spending
• the Southwest recorded a 5.1% decrease in shipping volumes, while spending held steady
  These numbers highlight ongoing challenges, but they also show signs of stabilization in some regions. While the market isn’t strong yet, early indicators suggest that the worst of the downturn may be behind us - and that a slow but steady recovery could be on the horizon.

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