The U.S. freight industry remains under pressure from two persistent issues: tariffs and limited carrier capacity. Over the past nine months, a combination of trade policy uncertainty, rate fluctuations, and operational challenges has created a highly volatile market environment. For many, this has been one of the most prolonged and disruptive downturns in recent memory.
An Industry in Prolonged Turbulence
Freight cycles that traditionally lasted around 14 to 15 months are now stretching well beyond that. The current downturn has doubled the expected duration, making it difficult for companies to plan and respond with confidence. Industry leaders have pointed to volatile trade policies, fluctuating rates, and a lack of clear direction as key obstacles to stability.
While the freight market thrives on consistency and predictability, current conditions are far from steady. Without sustained demand, companies have been unable to increase rates, and the path to a meaningful market rebound remains unclear. Business planning and investment decisions are being held back by this uncertainty, resulting in delayed hiring, reduced fleet expansion, and tighter cash flow management across the sector.
Adapting to Change Is the Only Option
Despite the instability, the industry is learning to adapt. Many shippers and logistics providers are becoming more agile, modifying their operations to absorb shocks and realign with shifting policies. A recent survey shows that a growing number of shippers are preparing to navigate changes in U.S. trade policy, including potential adjustments to tariffs.
While the market is not yet stabilizing at the pace many had hoped, there is cautious optimism that recovery will follow once demand begins to rise. A more balanced market would help normalize rates and allow companies to plan more effectively.
Capacity Pressures and Regulatory Impact
Capacity remains one of the freight industry's biggest concerns. Between May 2019 and May 2025, the number of active carriers increased from 240,000 to 320,000, and the driver count grew from 2.6 million to 3.2 million. However, recent regulatory changes are expected to slow that growth - and may even reverse some of it.
New federal requirements for non-domiciled CDL holders have introduced stricter renewal processes and documentation demands. Annual in-person renewals and proof of English language proficiency are now required, creating new hurdles for drivers entering or remaining in the U.S. commercial driver workforce.
These rules are likely to result in a reduced number of new drivers and may push some current drivers out of the market, further tightening available capacity.
A Familiar Pattern of Disruption
This situation isn’t entirely new to the industry. Similar disruptions occurred in 2003, when new hours-of-service rules were introduced, and again in 2017, when electronic logging device (ELD) mandates went into effect. In both cases, the industry faced temporary shocks, followed by a period of adaptation and eventual stabilization.
The current challenges - with capacity constraints, changing regulations, and economic headwinds - mirror these past disruptions in scale and complexity. But the freight sector has historically shown a strong ability to recover.
Moving Forward: Resilience Through Tough Times
The freight industry plays a vital role in the economy, and millions of livelihoods depend on its continued strength. Despite the current hurdles, carriers and shippers are working hard to stay agile, revise business strategies, and prepare for the next phase of market conditions.
While capacity limits and regulatory changes present short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains optimistic for companies that stay focused, adaptable, and responsive. As in the past, the industry will find its footing - and rise again.
