The latest economic outlook from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggests that interest rates will begin to decline in 2026. While this may sound like positive news at first glance, the implications for the logistics and supply chain industry are more nuanced.

For transportation companies, 3PLs, asset-based carriers, shippers, and supply chain decision-makers, the coming years will not be defined by cheap capital—but by strategic capital allocation in a high-cost environment.

A Shift in Monetary Policy, Not a Return to Cheap Money

According to the CBO, the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate is expected to gradually decline and stabilize around 3.4% by 2028. However, this adjustment should not be interpreted as a return to the low-interest environment that fueled aggressive expansion across logistics during the early 2020s.

Long-term borrowing costs are projected to remain elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.3% by 2028, which has direct consequences for:

• fleet financing and equipment leasing
• warehouse development and automation projects
• long-term transportation contracts
• technology investments with multi-year ROI horizons

For logistics operators, this reinforces a reality that is already familiar: growth will depend less on leverage and more on operational efficiency and margin discipline.

What Higher Long-Term Rates Mean for Transportation Companies

Even as short-term rates decline, long-term financing will remain expensive. This creates pressure across the logistics ecosystem.

Asset-based carriers may face tighter margins when financing tractors, trailers, and maintenance infrastructure. Warehousing and fulfillment providers could see slower expansion timelines due to higher capital costs. Shippers, in turn, may delay large-scale supply chain redesigns or network optimization initiatives.

In practice, this means:

• fewer speculative expansions
• increased scrutiny of capital expenditure
• stronger emphasis on asset utilization and productivity

The companies that perform best will be those that can do more with existing capacity, rather than relying on rapid expansion.

Economic Assumptions Behind the CBO Forecast

The CBO’s projections factor in several recent developments that directly affect logistics demand:

• newly introduced tariffs impacting trade flows
• changes in immigration policy influencing labor availability
• the late-2025 federal government shutdown, which disrupted short-term economic activity

While these factors influence inflation, employment, and near-term GDP growth, the CBO expects the broader economic outlook to remain stable through 2028. For logistics leaders, this signals predictability rather than volatility, but also limited upside driven by macroeconomic tailwinds.

Labor Market Trends and Their Impact on Supply Chain Operations

Unemployment is projected to rise to 4.6% in 2026, before easing to 4.4% by 2028. From a logistics perspective, this modest increase does not necessarily translate into labor relief.

Transportation and warehousing labor markets remain structurally tight, especially for:

• qualified drivers
• dispatch and operations specialists
• skilled warehouse labor

Even with a slight rise in unemployment, competition for reliable talent is expected to continue. As a result, logistics companies will need to rely more on process optimization, training, and technology adoption to offset labor constraints.

GDP Growth and Freight Demand Outlook

The CBO forecasts real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2026, rebounding after the economic drag caused by the 2025 government shutdown. Growth is then expected to slow to an average of 1.8% over the following two years.

For freight and supply chain planning, this points to moderate and steady demand, rather than explosive growth. Volume fluctuations are likely to be driven more by sector-specific dynamics than by broad economic expansion.

This environment favors logistics providers that:

• diversify across industries
• maintain flexible capacity models
• align closely with shipper forecasting and planning cycles

Inflation, Tariffs, and Cost Pressures

Inflation is expected to remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in the near term, driven by tariffs and sustained consumer demand. Although inflation is projected to ease to around 2.1% by 2028, cost pressures will persist across transportation networks.

Fuel, insurance, labor, equipment, and compliance costs are unlikely to decline meaningfully. As a result, pricing discipline and contract structure will remain critical topics in B2B logistics negotiations.

Strategic Implications for B2B Logistics Leaders

Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, the CBO forecast reinforces a key message for the logistics industry: this is a period for strategic optimization, not aggressive leverage-driven growth.

Successful logistics organizations will focus on:

• improving cost visibility and margin control
• investing selectively in technology with clear operational ROI
• strengthening partnerships rather than expanding footprint at any cost
• aligning financial strategy with long-term interest rate realities

Interest rates may ease, but capital will remain expensive. In this environment, resilience, transparency, and execution excellence will define competitive advantage.

Planning for 2026 and Beyond

For B2B logistics professionals, the question is no longer whether rates will come down—but how to operate effectively while borrowing remains costly. The companies that adapt early will be better positioned to serve shippers, protect margins, and scale sustainably in a slower-growth economy.

The CBO’s outlook does not signal a crisis. It signals discipline.

And in logistics, discipline has always been a competitive advantage.

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