The freight market has been slow for a while now-and freight capacity has remained unstable. While employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggest one thing, deeper data points tell a more complex story.

According to Truckinginfo.com, recent freight workforce estimates may be off. The numbers will likely be revised in February, and all signs point to a smaller labor force than initially reported-especially among drivers.

Employment vs. Capacity: What’s the Connection?

It’s important to understand that payroll employment and driver supply aren’t the same, but they’re closely related. Drivers make up the bulk of trucking payrolls, and their numbers tend to shift with freight demand.

If the workforce is smaller than current reports suggest, freight capacity may be tighter than expected. That’s key-because tighter capacity puts freight companies in a stronger position for rate recovery in 2025.

Why the BLS May Be Overestimating

The BLS releases monthly job reports based on sample estimates-quick to publish but not always fully accurate. In contrast, their Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is based on more comprehensive data but takes longer to compile.

For example, in February 2023, updated QCEW data led the BLS to revise trucking employment down by 33,000 jobs. A similar shift may be on the horizon.

Recent preliminary QCEW data already shows warning signs:

• 41,000 fewer payroll jobs than the BLS estimated
• A 2% drop in employment year-over-year (BLS) vs. 3.4% drop (QCEW)
• Growth since pre-pandemic (Feb 2020): 4.1% increase (BLS) vs. just 1.9% (QCEW)

The biggest gap? General freight truckload employment-which QCEW shows had nearly 22,000 fewer drivers than BLS reported. Specialized trucking showed similar overestimations.

What It Means for the Industry

For truckers and carriers, lower employment numbers suggest tighter capacity, which could help push rates up in the new year. But there are a few caveats.

The BLS data is focused on employer firms-leaving out a portion of the market made up of independent owner-operators and non-employer carriers. This means shifts in those groups might not be captured in payroll data at all.

The Bottom Line

There’s a disconnect between estimated job reports and what’s actually happening on the ground. For carriers, shippers, and logistics planners, understanding these differences is crucial heading into 2025.

If freight capacity is indeed tighter than it appears on paper, the industry could be on the verge of a rebound. But as always, strategy will depend on watching the right numbers—and knowing where the blind spots are.

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